One of the first Advanced Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs), the BWRX-300 Small Modular Reactor (SMR) will commence operation in 2027 and should become available in the UK by 2030.
This is Dogger Bank A; B; C - Offshore Windfarm:
And this is the BWRX-300 Advanced NPP
The most significant factor investors should consider about advanced SMRs is their build programmes are now down to 2 years - no different to an offshore wind farm. So the cost-of-capital burden that has drained investment from conventional npps is utterly negated. Comparing investments, it need not be considered a part of 'Significant Costs'.
--------------------//--------------------
For the Dogger Bank investment, assuming the full 426 million MWh are generated between 2025 and 2050, the first significant cost is capital investment: £21.13/MWh.The second significant cost is O&M. Research data is sparse, but a 2016 publication references a similar site: 800 MW Wind Farm D. The O&M cost is €75.2 million/yr. Pro rata that to 3,600 MW and factor in the 2016 € to £ exchange rate and UK inflation to 2020 and this significant cost is £17.50/MWh.
Page 6; Table 1; Wind Farm D. (2016)
The third significant cost is fuel and since it is stated frequently that this is 'free energy' the cost is £0.00/MWh.
The fourth and final significant cost is decommissioning. A research paper from DVL, a world authority on maritime affairs, settles at €400,000/MW. Factor in the 2015 € to £ exchange rate and UK inflation to 2020 and this significant cost is £2.70/MWh.
Page 9; Fig 9 (2015)
The significant cost total is £41.33/MWh. When applied to 426 million MWh is £17.61 billion.
--------------------//--------------------
For the Advanced NPP, the BWRX-300, the first significant cost of capital investment is £4.13/MWh.
It is then possible to ascertain all of the remaining costs: Fuel fabrication; O&M; waste fund; decommissioning fund - from an analysis of Hinkley Point C npp. All of these costs add up to €23.00/MWh in 2018. Factor in the 2018 € to £ exchange rate and UK inflation to 2020 and this significant cost is £25.10/MWh
The significant cost total is £29.23/MWh. When applied to 2,177 million MWh is £63.63 billion.
Pie Chart: Hinkley Point C nuclear power plant
------------------------------//------------------------------
So what does that mean for the pension pots that have gone into the £9.0 billion offshore wind farm, commencing generation in 2025 and earning for every MWh sold at the going Wholesale Price.
Thinking in terms of a Wholesale Electricity Price of £50.00/MWh, by 2050, after its 25 years lifespan of economical operation, Dogger Bank will have generated an income of £21.30 billion, with significant costs of £17.61 billion. That's a potential for dividend payments from earnings of £3.69 billion.
Working out at £0.41 for every £1.00 of capital invested.
Meanwhile, it is reasonable to assume the Pension Fund Manager holding onto his £9.0 billion until 2030 would probably have partaken of 'opportunity earnings'. Then by 2030, the £9.0 billion invested in advanced npps starts earning on the Wholesale Market.
Thinking in terms of a Wholesale Electricity Price of £50.00/MWh, by 2050, after its 25 years lifespan of economical operation, Dogger Bank will have generated an income of £21.30 billion, with significant costs of £17.61 billion. That's a potential for dividend payments from earnings of £3.69 billion.
Working out at £0.41 for every £1.00 of capital invested.
Meanwhile, it is reasonable to assume the Pension Fund Manager holding onto his £9.0 billion until 2030 would probably have partaken of 'opportunity earnings'. Then by 2030, the £9.0 billion invested in advanced npps starts earning on the Wholesale Market.
Again,thinking in terms of a Wholesale Electricity Price of £50.00/MWh, by 2050, after 20 years of operation (1/3rd of its lifespan), BWRX-300 npps will have generated an income of £36.26 billion, with significant costs of £21.20 billion. That's a potential for dividend payments from earnings of £15.07 billion.
But they will carry on for another 40 years of economical operation to reach £45.21 billion
Working out at £5.02 for every £1.00 of capital invested (12X more).
But they will carry on for another 40 years of economical operation to reach £45.21 billion
Working out at £5.02 for every £1.00 of capital invested (12X more).
------------------------------//------------------------------
WHAT TO DO???
DO NOT INVEST IN OFFSHORE WIND NOW - KEEP YOUR PENSION FUNDS SAFE FOR ANOTHER 5 YEARS AND INVEST IN
ADVANCED NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS!
ADVANCED NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS!
No comments:
Post a Comment